Will Trump ban Iranians from getting visas again?
We anticipate that Iranian nationals will once again be banned from receiving visas for travel to the United States with the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency, along with other nationals.
President-elect Trump vowed on the campaign trail to “bring back the travel ban,” which has often been referred to as the “Muslim ban” as it was based on Trump’s 2015 vow for “a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on.” Likewise, key advisors like Stephen Miller have vowed to bring back and expand the ban, including by instituting some form of ideological screenings.
Given that Trump was able to implement a ban in his first term and has vowed to restore it, we believe a ban on Iranian visas is likely to be implemented in the very near future, regardless of the lack of merits to this harmful policy.
When could a new ban be implemented?
We believe that If President-elect Trump reimposes a ban on Iranian visas, it is highly likely to be implemented in his first week in office, which begins January 20, 2025. Trump has said he will sign over twenty-five Executive Orders, a record number, on his first day in office.
In 2017, President Trump signed his first Executive Order imposing a Muslim ban on January 27, at the end of his first week in office. Four years later, President Biden signed an order repealing Trump’s ban on his first day in office on January 20, 2021, fulfilling a commitment to NIAC Action.
Do we know what the scope of a new ban could be?
We do not know the scope of the new ban as no details have emerged regarding it. One possibility is that it is broadly similar to the final ban Trump implemented after his initial bans were overturned in court – Presidential Proclamation 9645, which survived judicial review.
On Iranian visas, Presidential Proclamation 9645 stated: “The entry into the United States of nationals of Iran as immigrants and as nonimmigrants is hereby suspended, except that entry by such nationals under valid student (F and M) and exchange visitor (J) visas is not suspended, although such individuals should be subject to enhanced screening and vetting requirements.”
A waiver process was included in the proclamation, which allowed for a waiver to be granted “only if a foreign national demonstrates to the consular officer’s or CBP official’s satisfaction that:
(A) denying entry would cause the foreign national undue hardship;
(B) entry would not pose a threat to the national security or public safety of the United States; and
(C) entry would be in the national interest.”
The waiver process was heavily criticized as a sham, as very few were processed. In 2019, the State Department’s own data showed that waivers were only utilized in a small number of cases.
While some in Trump’s orbit, including Elon Musk, have touted the benefits of Iranian immigrants to the U.S. economy, the Trump administration could still choose to be more expansive in its targeting of Iranian nationals than Proclamation 9645.
How can we prevent a ban, are there legal or legislative options?
It is too early to determine if there are legal paths to blocking the implementation of a ban that has not yet been issued. However, we anticipate robust efforts to halt them.
Early in the first Trump Administration, there were several legal efforts that initially succeeded in halting implementation of the first two versions of the ban – Executive Order 13769 and Executive Order 13780. Amid each ban, judges sided with plaintiffs who argued that the bans were based in unlawful religious discrimination, issuing orders to halt nationwide implementation of the bans amid judicial review. However, the final version of the ban – Presidential Proclamation 9645 – went all the way to the Supreme Court.
In a momentous 5-4 decision in Trump v. Hawaii, a majority of the Supreme Court allowed the ban to go into effect, arguing that the President has the authority to bar the entry of aliens to the United States and noting the proclamation’s inclusion of a waiver process. The dissenting argument, by contrast, noted the Trump administration’s history of animus toward Muslim populations, the lack of an effective waiver and the lack of evidence that it was based in national security. If the ban is largely similar to that which was upheld in 2018, the Trump v. Hawaii precedent could limit legal avenues for challenging a future ban. However, separate litigation has been pursued and provided forms of relief to those impacted by the initial bans.
Legislation has been introduced in past Congresses, the NO BAN Act, that would limit the authority of the Executive Branch to unilaterally impose travel bans without meeting certain criteria. This legislation is expected to be introduced in the new Congress but faces a daunting road to becoming law given lack of support from Congressional Republicans.
What are some things that I or my loved ones can do to prepare?
This is not legal advice and we encourage those seeking legal advice on their immigration to status to contact an immigration lawyer. However, if you are an Iranian national who has any form of a U.S. visa or status as a legal permanent resident, we strongly encourage you to consider making plans to be inside the United States before January 20, 2025. Given that Trump’s initial ban in 2017 targeted and led to significant complications for Iranian green card holders and valid visa holders alike, it is certainly possible that the Trump administration will once again attempt expansive targeting of Iranian nationals. Caution is warranted, so plan accordingly. Likewise, we encourage all individuals of Iranian heritage to review their rights in the U.S. in anticipation of any complications.
What was the impact of Trump’s original bans?
The impact of Trump’s original bans were extensive on Iranian nationals, Iranian Americans with familial bonds to loved ones in Iran and other nationals who were targeted.
More than 40,000 Iranians applying for both nonimmigrant and immigrant visas were directly impacted by the third Trump ban, Presidential Proclamation 9645. These were Iranians who sought to secure a visa to reunite with their loved ones, like sharing a once-in-a-lifetime memory like a wedding or the birth of a child or to mourn the loss of family. Others hoped to study at prestigious universities, to contribute to the American economy and pursue the American dream. Others sought to flee the repressive government in Iran and start a new chapter in a more open society. All were targeted by the initial travel bans based on their national heritage alone.
More broadly, there was also a chilling effect on Iranian visa applications, as many who might have applied for visas figured it was not worth the effort. Issuances of both nonimmigrant and immigrant visas to Iranians declined by more than 100,000 in Trump’s first term in office, and was later slow to recover despite Biden’s initial repeal of the ban.
Sadly, the wounds of the first ban have not fully healed. Some who hoped to secure visas in Trump’s first term never got them under Biden and are now once again facing an arbitrary and discriminatory ban.
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