In 2002, the drumbeats of war started and countless talking heads in Washington, DC claimed that, if we invaded Iraq, it would bring democracy and stability to the Middle East. The Bush Administration amplified claims by Iraqi exiles eager to return to power that the Iraqi people would welcome us as liberators and, freed of Saddam, would be able to swiftly establish a democratic beacon of stability that would send positive reverberations across the region.
They were dead wrong. Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were killed along with thousands of U.S. soldiers; radical terrorist groups emerged from the rubble as the country became engulfed in a brutal civil war; and Iran’s theocratic government gained unparalleled influence. The propaganda and magical thinking that the U.S. and partners could impose society-wide crippling sanctions to impoverish and isolate an entire population for years, and then suddenly manifest democracy at the barrel of a gun, was thoroughly discredited.
Yet today, some are eager to dismiss those lessons and repeat the same failed exercise – with the panacea to solving all the region’s problems no longer being the removal of Saddam, but the removal of Iran’s ruling government. They’ve crafted a narrative to pin the blame for all past and current regional instability on Iran, suggesting that we can once again wave a magic wand to rid Iran of its repressive government and peace will grow across the Middle East. This is more magical thinking that is bound to lead to another disastrous war of choice that victimizes ordinary people and sets off more instability and bloodshood.
In a galling touch of Orwellian flair, those advocating for U.S.-led regime change in Iran claim that it is not the fault of those who have sabotaged diplomatic efforts or advocated for militarism and broad Iraq-style sanctions on Iran who are to blame if and when there is a war – no, it is the advocates for peace who they say should be blamed. They also hedge their arguments – claiming at times that they want a genuine internally-led regime change effort and do not favor military action, but also claiming that it is up to the U.S. to facilitate this “organic” effort through “maximum pressure” and “maximum support.” policies that are just repackaged versions of the same sanctions and military threats that have failed Americans and Iranians for the past forty-five years. When the U.S. and Iran struck a nuclear agreement that removed sanctions pressures that have undermined Iranian civil society and interfered with Iranian society’s ability to build power to challenge the ruling authorities, it was Iran’s hardliners and the supposed “regime change” crowd that most loudly cried foul.
These advocates look at the instability and destruction of the past ten months and only see Iran’s hand, willfully ignoring Israel’s reckless disregard for international law, and the impunity afforded by unconditional U.S. support, as it has bombed and starved a population of more than 2 million Gazans. And more than any other recent U.S. decision, the seeds for today’s instability were sown when Donald Trump tore up the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor in 2018 at the urging of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In so doing, he didn’t just unshackle Iran’s nuclear program and crush ordinary Iranians under sanctions, he set the course for conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Up until that point, Iran and its aligned militias had actually worked in close proximity to roll back the Islamic State in Iraq. After the U.S. exited the deal and pursued “maximum pressure” sanctions, that cold peace evaporated as militias began targeting U.S. forces, severely escalating tensions.
Total American deference to Israel has prevented Joe Biden from shifting course over the past three and a half years. Israel pre-empted his efforts to restore the Iran nuclear deal by assassinating Iran’s preeminent nuclear scientist – Mohsen Fakhrizadeh – before Biden even entered office. When the Biden administration did finally get around to beginning to negotiate restoring the 2015 nuclear deal in April 2021, Israel responded by sabotaging the Natanz enrichment facility the following weekend. Now, on the day a new moderate Iranian President is inaugurated and there was momentum toward a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel struck again by carrying out an assassination on Iranian soil. Netanyahu has blocked any movement toward deescalation for years, but has kept getting a free pass from the Biden administration and many U.S. lawmakers.
Now, the world is left to pray that the Iranian government is wise enough to calibrate its response and does not move us one giant step closer to regional war. But it is remarkable that the hawks who warn that Iran is not a rational actor pin the hopes of avoiding war on Iran continually taking an offramp for conflict after it is repeatedly attacked.
To oppose war right now means one thing: demand Joe Biden utilize diplomacy to step back from the brink of war, and to use U.S. leverage to force Israel to end its war on Gaza and accept a ceasefire. Everything else is just noise and empty posturing.
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