What Just Happened?: Assessing the 2024 Election Results and the Path Ahead

“I think what Americans saw time and time again was an administration that was saying big things and was not delivering on those big things,” said Tariq Habash, Founder and Director of A New Policy. “You can’t say for 13 months that you’re working tirelessly on the ceasefire resolution and then never achieving that ceasefire.” Habash, who resigned from the Biden administration in protest of U.S. support for the Israeli war on Gaza, spoke on an elections-focused panel at NIAC’s 2024 Symposium on November 12 on the outcome of the recent U.S. Presidential election. Habash further highlighted the shortcomings of the Harris campaign and Biden administration policies writ large, which he said helped to ensure a second Trump presidential term. “You can’t say that you’re going to make Roe the law of the land and then not deliver for women,” he said. “You can’t say that you’re going to cancel student debt for millions and millions of Americans and not do it.”

Mitra Jalali, St. Paul City Council President and the moderator of this discussion, kicked off this panel by asking Abed Ayoub, National Executive Director of the Arab American Anti-Discrimination Committee, his analysis on whether U.S. foreign policy toward Gaza became a decisive factor in Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss and President Donald Trump’s success. Ayoub spoke to the Harris campaign’s seemingly over-reliant approach to work more directly with consultants as opposed to meeting face-to-face with key voter constituencies on the ground, particularly in Michigan. Ayoub noted that voters who demanded that the Harris campaign announce and work towards a shift in policy to effectively end the devastation and destruction in Gaza were largely ignored:

“The reason Trump is in office is because the campaign saw an opening – and it’s not only with the Arab or Muslim community or the Iranian community or other communities…in a lot of these cities [the Trump campaign] had on-the-ground outreach efforts and a different outreach campaign than the Harris campaign had or the Biden campaign prior to that. That’s the main reason they’re there – they out-campaigned them on the ground. They gave the voters what they wanted to hear. Now whether or not they act on those promises from the past few days, we’ll see how that goes. But I definitely do believe that Gaza played a big role in why the Democrats lost.”

Habash likewise noted that building a successful electoral campaign is one that does not involve “cozying up to billionaires” or “campaigning with Liz Cheney.” He continued “It’s about listening to your voters, listening to the American people, that’s what you need to do if you want to be successful in American politics.”

As Ayoub noted, Trump’s campaign saw an opening when it came to its position on the war in Gaza. While the Harris campaign doubled down on pushing a continued, militarized agenda in the Middle East in keeping with current President Biden’s policy, Trump strategically positioned himself as the anti-war candidate. But it remains far from clear whether Trump could make good on these campaign promises, as noted by Yasmine Taeb – Political Director for MPower Change Action Fund. Taeb noted that many of the incoming administration’s choices for cabinet positions – including Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz – do not reflect an anti-war approach. Taeb emphasized that “at the end of the day, he’s a con man. He’s going to say what you want to hear. He campaigned on ending the endless wars and running on peace, and he’s bringing in the war cabinet.”

The role of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s (AIPAC) and affiliates like the Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) in spending $10s of millions to impact Democratic primaries and the broader U.S. electoral landscape has been a frequent topic throughout this election and its aftermath. The groups’ high profile efforts to unseat progressive candidates – including Representatives Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) and Cori Bush (D-MO) – who have chosen to take a critical stance against the Israeli government could dramatically reshape Congress. Lauren Maunus – Political Director of IfNotNow Movement – who helped organize the “Reject AIPAC” coalition of groups working to counter AIPAC’s political and monetary influence in elections and on Capitol Hill, emphasized that “AIPAC is not unique in playing a role as a big, corporate billionaire PAC – it is the latest big money spender. But that is absolutely no reason that it should have any place, definitely in the Progressive Caucus, but absolutely in the Democratic Party as well.”

NIAC Action board member Jalali contributed her own perspective as St. Paul City Council President regarding the impact of big money groups like AIPAC in elections. Jalali noted that while so much time, effort, and money is spent defending party leaders when they’re up against the billionaire funding and influence of groups like AIPAC, it is diverting activism away from the real work – what Jalali detailed as “apartment door knocks, voter turnout, registering new people, reaching out to the disconnected constituencies, communicating our message.” She pointed to the reality that “we couldn’t spend all that time building up those bases during the primary because we were fighting for the chance to stay there. And then that is an opportunity cost that is very steep and very devastating for the people that we represent and that we’re fighting for.”

Looking ahead on challenging those defending the militaristic status quo, Taeb noted a popular refrain: “they have the money, but we have the many.” 

Maunus, meanwhile, suggested the need to build a progressive foreign policy vision, stating “we need something like the Green New Deal for foreign policy, something that actually unites us across a very big spectrum that’s not just the Democratic establishment elite’s vision of what needs to happen.”

Habash described his vision for a long-term strategy as one that strengthens and builds “that pipeline between the organizations that are doing this work, down to the grassroots to our Members of Congress so that there is a clear concise message that is reaching people where they are and reaching our elected officials so they can actually hear from real Americans about what their constituents truly care about on these issues to be successful in the long term.”

Ayoub closed out this question by emphasizing the importance of an institutional perspective: “When the institutions are together making decisions it needs to be truly from the community and not pulled into party politics. And we need to keep the lines open with both parties moving forward. We can’t have a situation where there is no communication or no contact. We need to strengthen our institutions, put money in them, back them up, make them strong.”