Washington, DC – NIAC Policy Director Ryan Costello issued the following statement regarding reports that Bashar Al Assad has fled Syria and the Assad family’s reign has collapsed:
Back to top“Assad’s government was a brutal dictatorship that engaged in heinous acts of repression and torture. We hope his fall can bring Syrians a government that respects their rights and reflects their desires. We celebrate the liberation of political prisoners who were long tortured by the government, in some cases for decades, in the most heinous conditions. At the same time, a power vacuum risks threatening the people of Syria and the region with more chaos and violence, and the potential prominence of groups with historic ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS underscores the risks that the near future holds.
“There is a message in Assad’s collapse for Iran’s rulers: a country run solely through the state’s monopoly on violence is inherently unstable. Iran faces deep grievances in society, and the government’s tool of first resort is repression rather than finding a way to improve the lives of its people via economic improvement and social reform. Revolution often seems impossible up to the point when it is inevitable, as Assad’s rapid fall demonstrates. The Iranian people have long demanded dignity and rights and the end of state repression, which have been denied and rejected. It is long past time their voices were elevated and their demands listened to, rather than ignored and suppressed.
“It is undoubtable that Assad’s loss is a major blow to Iran’s security strategy relying on fighting in Iran’s near abroad and supporting partners aligned against Israel for added layers of security. The decimation of the capability of these partners shouldn’t be underestimated, as it will prompt an urgent security rethink. Nor should it be overestimated, as Iran retains significant military capabilities that it has chosen not to deploy to try to save the axis of resistance.
“Some will argue that Iran is a paper tiger and now is the time to press the advantage with direct military action against Iran. Yet we hear these calls when Iran’s fortunes are up or down. War against Iran would be a dire mistake that would instead blow back against the U.S., Israel and other actors and all but ensure Iran weaponizes its nuclear program, while also causing immense suffering for ordinary civilians. Instead, the incoming U.S. administration should seek to guard against further shocks by pursuing de-escalation with Iran on the nuclear file and regional security.”