Trump has made major, clear signals of his desire for a new nuclear deal with Iran, building on prior statements supportive of diplomacy. These seem to set the stage for new negotiations, despite his apparently reluctant signature of a memorandum reinstituting “maximum pressure” sanctions against Iran.
For those serious about resolving tensions with Iran through diplomacy, putting American interests first and preventing further war in the Middle East, what Trump said about Iran yesterday was very positive.
Trump was “torn” about signing his maximum pressure memorandum, and said he hopes it won’t be implemented very much
Trump’s maximum pressure memorandum directs the Treasury Department, State Department and Attorney General to take an aggressive posture toward Iran, amplifying sanctions pressure. However, the vast majority of these steps have been the modus operandi of these institutions toward Iran since President Trump first exited the nuclear deal. Somewhat new elements include directions to cancel waivers that provide any benefit to Iran, efforts to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero and calls for the snapback of all international restrictions on Iran, seeming to refer to United Nations resolutions.
Yet, in signing the memorandum, Trump signaled ambivalence about signing and said, “hopefully it will be a document which won’t be very important and will hardly have to be used.”
Neocons who desire a war with Iran would be eager to use these directives to sabotage any move toward diplomacy. However, Trump has made clear that is not his intent, and that his preference would be for it not to be implemented while he tests the opportunity for negotiations. Whether he gets his wish, or is undermined by the agencies underneath him, will go a long way toward determining whether he pursues a successful diplomatic approach toward Iran.
Trump said much of Iran’s leadership doesn’t want nuclear weapons, and underscored that is his sole bottom line for a deal
Trump declared “There are many people at the top ranks of Iran that do not want to have a nuclear weapon.” This is perhaps not surprising to close observers of Iranian politics and national security, but it is a sea change for how an American President talks about Iran. U.S. intelligence agencies have long assessed that Iran halted concerted work toward a nuclear weapon, even as it has expanded and made technical advances of its civilian nuclear program. The aging Supreme Leader Khamenei has long stated that development of a nuclear weapon is forbidden, though officials within the Iranian system have started to note that this is a stance that could be altered if Iran is pushed into a corner.
Moreover, Trump laid out that his sole demand for an Iran deal is that Iran cannot secure a nuclear weapon. This is a departure from his approach in his first term, where the policy – set by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo – laid out a series of 12 demands that Iran would need to meet for a deal. But those requirements were so extreme that Iran interpreted them as an offer that they could not accept. By focusing on an area that Iran says it accepts, he is clearing a path to a nuclear deal. If trust is built, additional areas for negotiation could open up.
Trump’s rhetorical openness to a deal is stunning in its boldness – and could be just what is needed to break the impasse
It took the Biden administration until February 19, 2021, to make any gesture toward Iran, and it was extremely limited – loosening restrictions on Iranian diplomats and signaling that they did not recognize the Trump administration’s earlier attempt to snap back United Nations sanctions resolutions on Iran from outside of the 2015 deal. This undermined momentum toward restoring the accord, which Biden had earlier signaled he was open to. Iran and the U.S. both got bogged down in who would move first, even though the onus was on the U.S. to reverse its exit from the 2015 accord.
Trump’s moves to date have been more bold, direct and fast. On February 5, the President made plain his clear desire for a deal, and rejected calls for bombing Iran. “reports of the U.S. planning to bomb Iran are “GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social. “I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement, which will let Iran peacefully grow and prosper. We should start working on it immediately…”
Iran has already responded somewhat affirmatively, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warning that maximum pressure would lead to failure but that if Trump is solely interested in nonproliferation, a deal is “achievable and there is no problem.”
There is a clear window for negotiations now – but if Iran drags its feet, the winds could shift in favor of maximum pressure and toward military confrontation. Both sides should move to advance their mutual interests, strike a deal that ensures Iran cannot secure a nuclear weapon and moves the region toward greater peace, stability and prosperity
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