President Joe Biden was right to remove the Muslim Ban on Day One of his administration. Yet, as his term ends after four years, the processing of visas for Iranians under his administration never returned to anything approaching the levels that were seen under the Obama administration. This marks a failure that tarnishes President Biden’s commendable step to end the Muslim Ban on Day One of his Presidency. Moreover, Iranians and others now await Trump’s plans to reimpose and expand the Muslim ban, risking separating many Iranian families once again.
Below are key trends that we have observed in the processing of Iranian visas over the past calendar year and throughout the Biden administration:
Trump’s Ban Still Looms Over Iranian Visa Processing
While many more Iranian visa and refugee admissions arguably could have been facilitated by the Biden administration, it is important to emphasize that President Biden’s decision to end the Muslim ban made a difference for many Iranian-American families and their loved ones. If the ban had remained in place, more than 60,000 Iranian nationals who received visas under existing policies would likely have been barred from receiving them under the ban. This includes Iranians receiving visitor visas to meet new family members for the very first time or to attend weddings and funerals. It also includes many individuals who received life-changing family preference and immediate relative visas, or who were admitted to studies in the United States. These significant benefits should not be overlooked, particularly on the possible eve of the ban’s return, when so many of these opportunities could unjustly be denied again.
Still, looking at the data, it is crystal clear that the Biden administration repealed the Muslim ban but never restored processing of Iranian visas to pre-Trump levels. As the charts below clearly show, visa processing and refugee admission for Iranians bounced back following the Trump Muslim ban era, yet pale in comparison to what was typical under the Obama administration.
Whereas total visa processing for Iranians was routinely greater than 30,000 and higher than 40,000 visas in Fiscal Year (FY) 2014 and FY 2015, processing under the Biden administration will only be higher than 20,000 in both FY 2023 and FY 2024. Likewise, refugee admissions once resulted in thousands of Iranians being admitted to the United States regularly, and sometimes more than 5,000. Yet, these numbers fell off a cliff under the era of Trump’s bans and have never really recovered. Biden is almost certain to fall well short of processing 2,000 Iranian refugees throughout his entire term in office.
In the early days of the Biden administration, the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Trump administration’s gutting of consular affairs staff at the State Department were cited as reasons that visa processing had not returned to normal. However, both President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have had ample time to reverse course and make visa processing a priority, so these are hardly valid excuses anymore.
For Iranian nationals in particular, many complications likely stem from the Biden administration’s decision to leave the Trump administration’s so-called “extreme vetting” policies in place. This obligatory, arduous review of visa applicants of certain nations includes an extensive review of their social media engagements, with no clarity on what kind of activity could be construed as representing a security threat. Even if we assume the Biden administration has had strong and sound internal guidelines, it seems clear that the process significantly slows down the review of applicants from nationals subject to the extra layer of vetting. This vetting is almost certain to continue well into the future with the return of Donald Trump to the presidency.
Decline in Processing Student Visas
Concerningly, while student visa processing for Iranians rebounded after the end of the Muslim ban, processing of student visas saw a notable decline between Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 and FY 2024. While the State Department managed to process 4,386 Iranian student visas in FY 2023, a very slight bump up from the total processed in FY 2022, FY 2024 saw only 2,651 student visas processed. This represents a steep 39.6% decline.
Late summer months often represent a peak of processing student visas, given the oncoming fall semesters. Yet the peak was significantly diminished in FY 2024 compared to prior years. In July and August 2022, 1,566 Iranian student visas were processed. In July and August 2023, this total was very similar at 1,552. Yet in July and August 2024, processing fell off a cliff, with only 801 Iranian student visas issued.
The reasoning for this decline is unclear and, as of the time of publication, the State Department did not respond to our request for comment. It stands to reason that the decline is not due to any diminishment in demand for visas and acceptance to U.S. universities. Numerous individuals have contacted NIAC to complain about slow processing of student visas or seemingly arbitrary denials from the State Department. Notably, Iranian student applicants are often caught in a catch-22: they have to prove their merit to be accepted to U.S. universities, but also sufficient ties to Iran so that consular officers can assess they would be likely to return and not suggest “immigration intent,” even though many are pursuing studies that would help them contribute to the American economy and global innovation.
Many members of the Iranian-American community, both before and after the 1979 Revolution, came to the United States on a student visa for studies and found a pathway to contribute to American society and pursue the American dream. It is vital that this pathway remain open.
Decline in Refugee Admissions
Concerningly, refugee admissions also continued to decline following a spike in the spring of 2023 in the wake of the Woman, Life, Freedom movement. Whereas in FY 2023 the U.S. admitted 743 Iranian refugees, in FY 2024 that total declined by 36.5% to 472 Iranian refugees admitted.
It would make sense that there would be heightened focus from American authorities and greater demand for refugee resettlement in the wake of the crackdown on the 2022 protests, which a UN Fact Finding Mission indicated led to the deaths of 551 Iranians including 49 women and 68 children. One of NIAC’s primary recommendations to the Biden administration at this time was to surge processing of Iranian refugees, many of whom were forced to flee Iran amid the 2022 protests or earlier, brutal crackdowns on Iranian protesters and human rights defenders. We were pleased when the Biden administration appears to have acted on this recommendation, leading to a surge in refugee processing particularly from March through June 2023.
Yet, the pool of refugees who have fled Iran – including to Turkey – still remains. Thus, it is concerning that there appears to have been diminishing administration attention to how to support Iranian nationals who fear retribution from the Iranian government if they return to Iran’s borders, and often live in precarious situations in countries neighboring Iran. While in FY 2023 there were four months with Iranian refugee processing surpassing triple digits, no month in FY 2024 met that threshold and only two months hit the year’s high water mark of 60. Clearly, the administration can and should do better to support the people whose bravery it has often lauded.
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