Multiple overlapping crises are coming to a head in Iran’s domestic and foreign policies as Donald Trump prepares for his second Presidential term in the United States.
Inside of Iran, a years-long economic crisis combined with broader social conflict has created immense pressures on Iranian society, with the state struggling to address them under its existing restraints. While inflation has hovered around 40% for years since the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, leading to immense hardship on the lower and middle class in Iran with millions falling into poverty, inflation has once again spiked following the collapse of the Assad government. Now, Iran has set new records for the devaluation of its currency, worsening the economic struggle of ordinary citizens.
Amid this hardship are other stressors, including hazardous air pollution in Iranian cities that has disrupted ordinary life, electricity blackouts, shortages of medicine and stresses on the nation’s limited water resources.
Moreover, simmering anger rooted in the crackdown on the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom protests has been papered over but not resolved. While increasing numbers of women routinely defy the mandatory hijab laws and enforcement that were the focus of popular protests, Iranian authorities have continued to seek to claw back adherence. This includes the summons of a musician – Parastoo Ahmadi – who gave a moving musical performance without hijab, and parliament’s passage of a controversial bill that mandates harsh penalties and enforcement of the hijab laws that so many women now flout. For now, it appears the moderate Pezeshkian administration has delayed its enforcement and opposes the measure. But what is clear is that tensions over hijab, women’s role in society and Iran’s harsh domestic crackdowns continue to linger underneath the surface and could easily erupt again.
Add to this mix a combustible foreign policy situation for Iran. Whereas not too long ago Iran could count the “axis of resistance” as a formidable deterrent against Israel and the United States, several key cogs in that resistance have either been hobbled or collapsed amid the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon. Amid Israel’s genocidal war on Palestinians in Gaza, the Israeli military killed the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah, while Assad’s brittle government in Syria collapsed to rebel forces without much resistance. Israel, now facing diminished threats on its borders, is openly mulling the possibility of taking the fight to Iran and bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Many hawks in the United States, including some who will join the Trump administration, are joining Israel in urging war.
Yet, Iran remains far from a paper tiger. In addition to the largest missile stockpile in the region, which has proven capable enough to do damage to Israeli and U.S. bases and Saudi oil facilities, Iran’s nuclear program has taken dramatic leaps forward. Amid the collapse of the Assad regime and before the Trump administration re-enters office, Iran has moved to escalate its enrichment of uranium to 60% – just under the threshold typically considered “weapons grade” – by a roughly seven-fold increase. This includes a consolidation of Iran’s stock of higher enriched uranium at the deeply-buried Fordow enrichment facility, which would be very difficult to destroy in strikes. This move is seemingly designed to sharpen the choices for President Trump: negotiate, or risk being the President who starts a catastrophic war or lets Iran weaponize its nuclear program.
While the risks are real, both the internal and external pressures on Iran could open up space for a diplomatic breakthrough. In securing a deal, Trump would be able to claim credit for preventing war and blocking Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Likewise, the relatively new President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected in part on his commitment to secure sanctions relief, which is needed to begin to resolve the economic challenges that the Iranian economy is facing. The people of Iran, as well, could sorely use an economic reprieve following years of sanctions and pressures that they have been forced to endure. However, events could easily spiral out of control, particularly if President Trump listens to hawks eager to pursue escalation intended to foreclose the window to negotiate and make war inevitable.
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