Week of February 10, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council 

• • Escalating Nuclear Tensions as Iran Leaks Possible Extreme Demands from Washington
  • 27 Iranian Provinces Hit with Closures Amid “Energy Imbalance” and Severe Cold
  • New Arrests in Kerman Intensify Concerns Over Iran’s Detention of Foreign Nationals
  • New Security Talks Highlight Changing Dynamics Between Turkey and Iran
  • Murder of a University of Tehran Dormitory Student Sparks Widespread Protests

Escalating Nuclear Tensions as Iran Leaks Possible Extreme Demands from Washington

With Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei describing negotiations with the U.S. as “neither logical, nor rational, nor honorable” last week, new information has surfaced that could shed light on this hard line. In addition to a U.S. government memorandum reinstituting the so-called “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which included expansive goals like curbing Iran’s missile program and ending its support for groups Washington labels “terrorist,” the Iranian outlet Saberin News – with close ties to security agencies – reported that the United States has presented a list of demands to Tehran. 

It remains unclear whether the report is accurate and, if so, how the Trump administration supposedly conveyed these demands to the Iranian side. However, if the report is accurate, it is clear that Tehran would find them unacceptable and impossible to justify. According to Saberin News, the U.S. demands include closing all enrichment facilities and limiting any enrichment to under five percent; assigning supervisory authority over Iran’s nuclear activities to the United States rather than the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); stopping medium and long-range missile programs and dismantling missile production infrastructure; handing over or destroying all ballistic and cruise missiles; suspending satellite launches unless conducted under direct U.S. supervision; dissolving the “Axis of Resistance” by cutting support for allied regional groups while ceasing all opposition to Israel; and unconditionally releasing all American and European prisoners.

In exchange, the United States would ostensibly restore diplomatic relations, lift sanctions through legislation, and invest in Iran’s economy. Unsurprisingly, these alleged demands have been met with fierce criticism in Tehran. Iran maintains it will not negotiate from a position of weakness. Following President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy, Iranian officials assert that Washington aims to force Tehran into submission.

Notably, President Trump has asserted that his sole goal for a negotiation with Iran is ensuring Iran has no nuclear weapons. So if the report is accurate, the American message would go well beyond President Trump’s stated policy and would carry a significant risk of closing the window for negotiations before they even get underway.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly dismissed negotiations as “pointless.” Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, at a ceremony commemorating the 46th anniversary of the Revolution, defended Khamenei’s stance and sharply criticized Donald Trump. “If you were serious about negotiations, why did you do all these harmful things?” he asked, accusing the U.S. of trying to bring Iran to its knees through various “plots.” At a separate event in Hamedan, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also deemed Trump’s offer to negotiate “deceptive.”

Against this backdrop, the Iranian Foreign Ministry adopted a two-pronged stance on potential talks with the U.S. during the country’s 46th Revolution anniversary. While declaring readiness for “dignified dialogue,” the Ministry also emphasized “resistance against foreign pressures.” In a statement released Monday, February 10, the Foreign Ministry affirmed that “Iran is ready for honorable negotiations with any party recognizing its legitimate interests,” while also stressing that it “will respond decisively to any threats or pressures.” The statement further underscored a “renewed effort to safeguard national interests and security through active diplomacy.”

Various Iranian figures have reacted to the notion of negotiations with the United States. Mehdi Karroubi, a leader of the Green Movement still under house arrest and considered an opponent of Khamenei’s approach, recently met with First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Aref. During their conversation, Karroubi urged the Iranian government to normalize relations with the United States, calling on officials to “protect the country’s dignity” while resolving disputes with the new U.S. administration and easing public hardships. Karroubi’s statements came just hours after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called talks with the U.S. “futile.”

A video from the February 7 (19th Bahman) Friday Prayer in Tehran—led by Kazem Seddiqi—shows worshippers shouting slogans against negotiations with the United States as well as against Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Deputy for Strategic Affairs in the Presidency. Slogans such as “Negotiation with America is impossible” and “Zarif, get lost” were heard. Seddiqi, who has faced allegations of economic and land corruption, supported these slogans.

Although Trump initially adopted a somewhat softer tone, he has gradually escalated his rhetoric against Iran. In an interview with Fox News, however, he spoke of “an agreement” instead of “an attack,” amid speculation that the U.S.—potentially with Israeli cooperation—might strike Iran’s nuclear facilities. Trump reiterated that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons is a priority and that a verifiable agreement with thorough oversight is the ideal solution.

By contrast, President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that if Natanz or any other Iranian nuclear site is attacked, Iran can rebuild and even expand its nuclear infrastructure. His remarks followed U.S. media reports suggesting Israel might be preparing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, but would need U.S. assistance, and could only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a matter of weeks or months. “They threaten us, saying they’ll hit our nuclear center in Natanz,” Pezeshkian said, describing the nuclear program as the product of Iranian experts’ expertise: “You can hit a hundred of them and they’ll build a thousand more. You can destroy the building, but as long as the people who built it are still here, you can’t eliminate it.”

At the United Nations, Iran’s representative, Amir Saeed Iravani, lodged a formal complaint with the Security Council, accusing Trump of “violating the UN Charter” and escalating tensions through unilateral sanctions. Tehran has warned that any military action would meet with proportional retaliation, fueling global concerns over a potential broader conflict. Commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have echoed these warnings, asserting that any attack from the U.S. or its allies would endanger American interests worldwide. Brigadier General Majid Kazemi, the IRGC’s Chief of Intelligence, argues that Washington underestimates Iran’s resolve and promises a decisive defense in the face of any provocation.

The current situation reflects a new phase in a long cycle of confrontations, intermittent overtures for negotiation, and deep mutual mistrust. While both sides remain far from any agreement, internal pressures in Iran continue to mount, with reformists and pragmatists calling for a recalibration of Tehran’s ties with Washington in light of severe economic hardships and widespread public dissatisfaction. At the same time, resorting to war might please hardliners in the U.S. and Israel, but it could contradict Trump’s policy goals and tarnish his administration’s legacy, potentially engulfing the Middle East in further turmoil. 

Whether a new framework for negotiations can address these long standing disputes remains unclear. For now, escalating threats, crippling sanctions, and deep political discord define the atmosphere—one in which any miscalculation could spark a more serious confrontation in an already volatile region.

27 Iranian Provinces Hit with Closures Amid “Energy Imbalance” and Severe Cold

On Saturday, Bahman 20 (February 12), schools, banks and government offices in 27 provinces, as well as stock markets across the country, were closed following an announcement by Iran’s National Crisis Management Headquarters. The official reasons cited were cold weather, snowfall, and the need to ensure “stability of the energy network.” 

Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni had called on citizens to cooperate so that gas and electricity supplies would remain stable. The closures affected provinces such as Tehran, Alborz, Kerman, Semnan, Hamedan, Zanjan, South Khorasan, Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, Markazi, Qom, Bushehr, East Azerbaijan, West Azerbaijan, Lorestan, Isfahan, Mazandaran, Gilan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kurdistan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Fars, Qazvin, Golestan, Ardabil, and Khuzestan.

Widespread blackouts were also reported in Tehran, where there were closures of schools, banks, and government offices. The Ministry of Energy attributed the outages to “fuel shortages at power plants” and urged the public to conserve energy. Electricity was cut off in parts of Tehran as early as Tuesday evening, disrupting multiple neighborhoods in the east, west, and center of the city. The outages caused traffic lights and telecom towers to fail, triggering severe congestion.

Although Iran holds the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves—17% of the global total—it continues to experience recurring power outages and energy shortages that place its infrastructure and economic stability at risk. In an effort to mitigate these issues, Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi announced government initiatives to expand renewable energy, aiming for 2,400 megawatts of new capacity by next summer as part of a broader 12,000-megawatt renewable energy plan.

The energy crisis has been continuing for a few years now. Over the summer, industrial zones began experiencing scheduled blackouts. It then escalated to unplanned outages in the capital, with oil and energy ministers blaming each other. A government spokesperson asked them to refrain from shifting blame, and some officials issued public apologies, acknowledging that neither side had effectively solved the problem. Social media users reported losing running water when electric pumps failed, and some were locked inside garages with non-operational electric doors.

Although the Ministry of Energy identified “inadequate power plant fuel” as the principal cause, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad disputed that explanation, maintaining that the blackouts did not stem from a fuel shortage. He did, however, note that an energy “imbalance” had persisted for years, gradually worsening over time. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani called for better coordination and for warning the public before planned outages. Meanwhile, Mohammad Jafar Ghaem-Panah, executive deputy to President Masoud Pezeshkian, apologized to citizens, citing high demand and low production as leaving the government with “no choice.”

According to Mohammad Allahdad, Deputy for Transmission and International Commerce at Tavanir, illegal Bitcoin mining operations consumed about 1,000 megawatts of electricity—roughly 1% of Iran’s total generation capacity—and accounted for about “20% of the power imbalance.” Each mining device, he stated, used as much electricity as ten households. He also cautioned that the power shortage would not be resolved swiftly and might endure beyond 2025.

The extensive blackouts in Tehran and other major cities provoked a flurry of reactions on social media, ranging from sarcasm to frustration. Some users ridiculed official statements about Iran nearing a “great leap forward,” quipping that “darkness and cold” were part of the journey to the summit. Others questioned the value of the country’s nuclear energy program, asking, “What’s the point of nuclear energy if we have neither electricity nor a bomb?”

New Arrests in Kerman Intensify Concerns Over Iran’s Detention of Foreign Nationals

The United Kingdom’s Foreign Office has announced that two of its citizens have been detained in Iran, though they have been allowed to receive consular assistance. The arrests were reported in Iranian state media, which stated that the two British citizens are being held in the city of Kerman on unspecified security-related charges. A spokesperson for the Foreign Office said, “We are providing consular support to two British nationals detained in Iran and are in contact with local authorities.”

The IRNA news agency published a photo of a man and a woman, with their faces blurred – meeting with Hugo Shorter, the British Ambassador to Tehran, at the Prosecutor’s Office in the capital of Kerman Province. Also at the meeting were the prosecutor general of Kerman and the province’s deputy governor for security and law enforcement. While the names of the two detainees have not been disclosed, Kerman’s judiciary noted that more details will be provided at a later time.

In its travel guidance, the UK Foreign Office strongly advises its citizens against “all travel” to Iran, warning that Britons—including those with dual Iranian-British nationality—face a “high risk” of arrest, interrogation, or detention. It adds that “having a British passport or links to the UK can be sufficient reason for the Iranian authorities to detain you.” Several other Western governments, including the United States, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden, have also warned their nationals in recent years about the risks of traveling to Iran, with most urging citizens to avoid most if not all forms of travel.

These latest arrests come against the backdrop of ongoing concerns about foreign nationals—especially dual nationals—being detained in Iran. The Iranian government does not recognize dual citizenship, and many observers have described many of these imprisoned foreign or dual-national citizens as “hostages” or “political pawns,” alleging that Tehran uses them as leverage in negotiations. In many past cases, foreign detainees have only been released following diplomatic talks that included financial settlements or prisoner swaps involving Iranians held abroad.

A high-profile example is Siamak Namazi, an Iranian-American businessman arrested in October 2015 on espionage charges. He spent more than seven years in Tehran’s Evin Prison before being released as part of a prisoner swap between Iran and the United States in September 2023. Namazi’s detention had long been cited by rights groups as emblematic of what they describe as Iran’s practice of holding foreign nationals on politically-motivated charges.

Another prominent case was Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian citizen who was charged with “espionage” and spent six years in an Iranian prison before her release in 2022. Her freedom coincided with the UK settling an approximately £400 million debt to Iran relating to an old arms deal—although Iranian authorities denied any link between the payment and her release.

More recently, in December 2023, Italian journalist Cecilia Sala was freed from Evin Prison after what diplomats called “intense” negotiations. Sala’s arrest had occurred just days after an Iranian citizen, Mohammad Abedini Najafabadi, was arrested in Milan at the request of the U.S. Department of Justice. Although Iranian officials insisted the two arrests were unrelated, accusations of “hostage-taking” resurfaced when both individuals were freed around the same time following Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni’s intervention with then U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

In another notable exchange, Iranian national Hamid Nouri, a former deputy prosecutor at Gohardasht Prison detained in Sweden, was released in June in a swap involving two detainees—one Swedish and one dual-national—held in Iran. France has likewise accused Iran of “state hostage-taking,” with at least three French nationals currently jailed there. Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris were arrested in May 2022 on allegations of fomenting labor protests, while another French citizen, 34-year-old Olivier Grando, was detained in October 2022 and sentenced to five years in prison for “conspiring against the Islamic Republic.”

Such detentions and exchanges continue to fuel international criticism, with families of the prisoners, human rights organizations, and various Western governments accusing Iran of using foreign nationals as bargaining chips. As the new cases in Kerman illustrate, concerns persist that foreign travelers—especially those with political or economic ties—risk being drawn into broader geopolitical disputes if they visit Iran.

New Security Talks Highlight Changing Dynamics Between Turkey and Iran

Ibrahim Kalin, the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT), recently paid a rare visit to Tehran, where he met with Ismail Khatib, Iran’s Minister of Intelligence, and Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader’s representative. According to Turkey’s Anadolu news agency, the meeting took place on Saturday, although news of it only surfaced in Iranian and Turkish media the following day. Reports indicate that the discussions focused on “combating terrorist organizations—particularly the PKK and ISIS—shared security threats, the situation in Syria, the Gaza ceasefire, and developments related to Palestine.” Iranian state media briefly noted that “the two countries’ relations are very close and brotherly, and they share views on most issues.”

Hakan Fidan, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, also spoke by phone with Abbas Araghchi, his Iranian counterpart, the same day to discuss bilateral relations and the Gaza ceasefire. Just a week before the fall of Damascus, Araghchi described his “rare” trip directly from Damascus to Ankara as “constructive.”

These renewed Tehran-Ankara consultations come despite the two countries having been on opposing sides in the Syrian civil war. Ankara had backed opponents of Bashar al-Assad—who now hold power in Damascus—while Tehran supported the Assad government. In the final years before Bashar al-Assad was ousted on December 8, Iran, Russia, and Turkey engaged in “Astana” talks to decide Syria’s fate. Since the new Syrian administration took power, there have been at least two high-level discussions on a “framework for the transfer of power,” attended by Turkish, American, EU, and Arab diplomats—but Iran and Russia were excluded. Even so, the first meeting between Turkish and Iranian officials after Assad’s downfall took place in Cairo a few weeks later.

News of Ibrahim Kalin’s talks in Iran emerges as the Turkish government is reportedly increasing its military activities while also stepping up diplomatic efforts to end its long-standing dispute with Kurdish opposition groups. Observers note that Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) may be edging toward settling a decades-long conflict. Last week, Tuncer Bakırhan, who heads the People’s Equality and Democracy Party, claimed that Abdullah Öcalan would soon release a “historic message” aimed at ending the hostilities. Labeled a “terrorist organization” by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union, the PKK has waged a separatist campaign that has claimed over 40,000 lives. Öcalan, 75, has been serving a life sentence in İmralı Prison since his capture by Turkish forces in 1999.

These developments come amid intensifying clashes between Turkish-backed factions and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—led by Kurds—after Assad’s overthrow. The city of Manbij has been a focal point of combat. Turkey sees the YPG (People’s Protection Units) as the Syrian offshoot of the PKK. Some Turkish media claim Iran recently supplied 1,500 drones to Syrian Kurdish forces, a charge SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi dismisses as “Turkish propaganda.” He accuses Iran of playing a “negative role” in the former government’s dealings with the Kurds, impeding recognition of the Rojava autonomous region. 

Despite these tensions, Turkey now appears to seek Iran’s cooperation in addressing the Kurdish question both at home and in Syria, with the new Syrian leadership urging the Kurds to lay down their arms and Ankara threatening to “crush” them if they do not comply.

In parallel, Turkish and some Arab media have circulated allegations of an Iranian plan to assassinate Abu Mohammad al-Jolani—an influential figure among the anti-Assad forces—and to topple the new Syrian administration of Ahmed al-Sharaa. According to these unconfirmed reports, the supposed plot was discussed at a “secret gathering” in Najaf, Iraq, involving senior Revolutionary Guard figures and former Syrian military officers. No official statements have verified these claims, however, and there is significant doubt about the veracity of both the alleged drone deliveries to Kurdish forces and the purported assassination plot against Jolani.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has also been a focus of Iran’s leadership. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met in Tehran with senior Hamas leaders—the first such gathering since the Gaza ceasefire. Hamas enjoys close relations with Iran, Turkey, and Qatar. Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was notably assassinated in Tehran at the inauguration of Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, with Israel expected to have orchestrated the strike, raising tensions.

Murder of a University of Tehran Dormitory Student Sparks Widespread Protests

The killing of 19-year-old University of Tehran dormitory student Amir Mohammad Khalghi Dar Mian on February 12, reportedly during an attempted robbery (“زورگیری”), has elicited strong reactions. According to Tehran’s Police Information Center, Mr. Khalghi—majoring in business management—was attacked by two motorcyclists while on his way back to the University of Tehran dormitory. Police say the assailants attempted to steal his backpack, stabbed him, and caused a fatal injury to his respiratory tract.

In response, Tehran police have formed a “special team” to locate and apprehend the suspects. Dormitory students report that they have long voiced concerns about inadequate security in the area and blame both the university and law enforcement for failure to act. Protests over Mr. Khalghi’s murder continued into the night, with student activists citing confrontations involving plainclothes agents and university security.

On Friday (February 14), students at the University of Tehran held a demonstration in the dormitories to protest Mr. Khalghi’s death. Tensions escalated into clashes with plainclothes officers and campus security. 

In a statement, students emphasized their repeated warnings about security threats, denounced what they termed a “repressive atmosphere”, and criticized the use of “hundreds of security contractors.” They also called for a judiciary representative to clarify the circumstances of the murder. 

In criticizing both campus security and the university administration for failing to safeguard the dormitory vicinity, the students pointed out that the rear gate on Jannat Street (Amirabad) lacks sufficient security, rendering students susceptible to robberies. he Telegram channel “Daneshgah Tehraniha” also affirmed these complaints, noting that students had repeatedly warned the administration about the isolated rear gate and inadequate security measures.

According to Faraz, university officials claimed to have contacted the police with minimal success. Students want the university to file an official complaint against the local police station. 

Ali-Hossein Rezayan, the University of Tehran’s Vice President for Student Affairs, disputed assertions that the murder happened directly at the dormitory’s rear entrance. He stated it occurred “near the street at the intersection of Jannat Alley and Al-Ahmad Street (opposite Tarbiat Modares University), by a bus stop.” He added that students had requested tighter security four months earlier but, despite increased police patrols, “the tragedy we feared unfortunately happened.”

According to the Telegram channel “Khabarnameh Amir Kabir,” intelligence agents broke one student’s nose and confiscated personal items during the protest. As tensions rose, Hossein Hosseini, the acting president of the University of Tehran, arrived at the gathering in an effort to de-escalate the situation.

Dormitory friends of Mr. Khalghi provided details of the incident to the Faraz website. They said campus security appeared largely indifferent to his stabbing and did not monitor his condition at the hospital. One friend recalled, “He always returned by 10 p.m.. When he hadn’t come back by around midnight on Wednesday, we got worried and approached security. The security officer merely stated that a student had been stabbed and was in the hospital. By the time we reached Shariati Hospital, Amir Mohammad had already been in surgery since 9:30 p.m.”

A friend told Faraz that doctors worked for 20 minutes to revive Mr. Khalghi, but his internal organs had sustained critical damage. After surgery, he was transferred to the ICU, but he died around 7:30 a.m. The friend added, “He had just finished his first day at work and was carrying his laptop. He was protective of his belongings, so he likely resisted the thieves, who then stabbed him. After being wounded, he apparently ran several meters after the motorcycle but collapsed near the pedestrian bridge over Jalal Highway.”

Users on social media have voiced outrage over Mr. Khalghi’s killing, with many offering condolences to his family. Some criticized the lack of a police presence, contrasting it with the heavy police deployments at the University of Tehran’s main entrance for other protests.

Taher Roshandel Arbatani, dean of the University of Tehran’s Management Faculty, told IRNA he suggested renaming Jannat Alley—the site of the incident—after Amir Mohammad Khalghi “as a reminder and a warning to raise awareness among citizens and students.”