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A new report by the Oxford Research Group (ORG), an independent UK based non-governmental organization, maps out the growing risk of an Israeli military strike on Iran and the devastating consequences that could lead to a long, protracted war. The report, authored by Professor Paul Rogers, warns that an Israeli attack “would be unlikely to prevent the eventual acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran and might even encourage it.”
With talk of the military option against Iran back on the table, the consequences of such an attack are being assessed more and more carefully. The report indicates that a military attack would cause many civilian casualties in Iran, which would be met with a response that could bog down the United States in a protracted regional war. While considerable damage can be done to Iran’s missile and nuclear programs, it would increase political unity and strengthen the Ahmadinejad government.
An attack on Iran by Israel — a non-signatory to the NPT — would almost certainly lead the Iranians to withdraw from the treaty, and send a message to the international community that by staying out of the NPT you have more benefits then by joining.
Advocates of military strikes must ask themselves what they are going to do the day after an attack. Those who cannot answer that question should not consider the military option. Even implicit or explicit threats of war tend to be counterproductive, especially with Iran, as they make a possible accommodation more difficult.
The report indicates that an attack would surely extend the shelf life of the regime and should be firmly ruled out while alternative strategies must be pursued. The military option would set in motion a complex and long-lasting confrontation and “the consequences of a military attack on Iran are so serious that they should not be encouraged in any shape or form. However difficult, other ways must be found to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis.”
The report suggests that after the first strike comes the deluge, and the genie won’t be put back in the bottle. Iran would likely withdraw from the NPT, develop nuclear weapons to deter further attacks, set off a series of actions aimed at Israel and the United States, spark regional war, and cause a sharp rise in oil prices. As Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates recently warned, “If we attack Iran, our grandchildren will have to fight the jihadists here at home.”
The report warns that strikes will not solve the nuclear issue, and “put bluntly, war is not an option in responding to the difficult issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”
New Report: War Not an Option in Dealing with Iran
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