| Iranian-American Influence on the Presidential Primaries |
| Written by Babak Talebi | |||
| Thursday, 03 January 2008 | |||
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A NIAC Series: Reflections on Iranian-American Political Influence Iranian Americans have a tremendous opportunity to impact the outcome of the 2008 Presidential elections. The key to wielding influence far greater than ones actual numbers is to vote in the primaries, particularly on ‘Super Duper Tuesday,' February 5. With the support of PARSA Community Foundation, NIAC will be publishing a series of columns expounding on how the electoral process functions, how individuals can impact the process, and how the Iranian-American community as a whole make its mark on the 2008 elections. Delegates and Party Conventions Each political party officially nominates their candidate at their national convention in late summer (respectively located in Denver and Minneapolis for the Democratic and Republican parties). At the national convention, thousands of delegates representing each of the 50 states, territories, and high ranking party officials will cast their votes to confirm their party's nominee. The vast majority of the delegates are chosen during the primary elections and caucuses held in each state starting in January. Until the 1960s, the nominees would often not be confirmed until the convention, but in the modern era, the nominees are forgone conclusions months before the official convention date as it becomes clear which candidates have won the most primaries and thus the highest number of voting delegates. The Power of the Early Primaries Though it would seem logical to conclude that the largest states with the most delegates would have the biggest impact on choosing the party nominees, the fact is that traditionally, the early voting states (Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in particular) holding primaries in January have had an enormous impact on determining the nominees and the direction of their politics. For example in 2004, Senator John Kerry who was polling 2nd or 3rd before he won the Iowa caucus, used his momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire to win in every state but three. A recent Brown University report has shown that early state voters "have up to 20 times the influence of voters in later states." The main reason being momentum and media attention generated from the early victories. The Potential Iranian-American Impact
Second, during this election cycle, 23 states - including "Iranian-American states" such as California and New York - will hold their primaries on ‘Super Duper Tuesday' (February 5, 2008) and with so many financially viable candidates that can survive early losses, that date is widely expected to be decisive. A third, more general factor, is the benefits a small but dedicated community can reap from the discrepancy between the percentages of voters who vote in primary elections versus general elections. As low as participation is the general elections here in the US - compared to other Western democracies - turn-out in the primaries is even lower. In Virginia for example, during the 2004 Presidential election, 61.5% of the Voting-Eligible Population participated in the General election, whereas only 5.7% participated in Virginia's Democratic primary. The reduced voter participation during the primaries provides Iranian-Americans with a unique opportunity to influence the process far beyond their relative numbers. Therefore, high participation by the Iranian-American populations in California, New York, and Illinois in ‘Super Duper Tuesday' can grant the Iranian-American community disproportionate influence on the presidential elections. Babak Talebi is the Director of Community Relations at NIAC. This series has been produced with the generous support of PARSA Community Foundation. |
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