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Iran Faces "Legitimacy Crisis" Amid Election Aftermath
Written by Parisa Ghobbeh   
Friday, 26 June 2009
Washington DC - The Iranian government is now facing a "legitimacy crisis," according to Asieh Mir, speaking at the United States Institute of Peace on Thursday. Mir, a Jennings Randolph senior fellow at USIP, acknowledged that due to the contested June 12 presidential election, Iranian society is now divided between "two doctrines"-those who support strengthening the Islamic government in Iran, and those striving to advance the power of the people.

USIP's conference entitled "Iran's Presidential Elections: Implications for US-Iranian Engagement" aimed to address Iran's current domestic crisis amid the disputed presidential election, and the impact this unrest has for US-Iran relations. Daniel Brumberg, acting Director of the Muslim World Initiative at USIP described the historical background of the Islamic Republic and noted that internal fissures have always existed since the Revolution. He examined the formation of the split between the Islamic Left and Islamic Right in the early 1980's, and the emergence of the rift between reformists and conservatives, which has continued to this day. He also noted that the current Iranian government "is going through a Leninist/Stalinist transformation," meaning that the Islamic Republic has proven its emergence as a more violent and totalitarian state since its violent attacks on its own people within the last two weeks.

Mir also went on to discuss the cracks amongst the Islamic leadership, most notably amid the clergy and the military. She said that there is a power struggle within the country's leadership, especially between Rafsanjani and the Supreme Leader, Khamenei.  She noted that these divisions are significant, especially in light of the amount of solidarity amongst Iranians worldwide, something that has been non-existent since the 1979 Revolution.   She also noted that many people now believe the Islamic Republic is illegitimate, and they question how long the government can control society given the lack of trust the people have in their government.

Mir described that Iran is losing its legitimacy within both the domestic and the international community because of its decision to violently crackdown on its citizens for their peaceful demonstrations, and will be forced to restore its credibility to its people to avoid further discontent. However, Mir described that the unity amongst Iranians "will not be easily broken," and will not be forgotten even after the reinstatement of Ahmadinejad as the President.

Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, addressed the future for US-Iran relations, urging the United States to continue its plans for engagement, noting that the US has always known it would "have to deal with an unpleasant Iranian government." She said that the US must not intervene in Iran's domestic affairs since the movement is unique to Iran, and the US cannot be certain what is happening on the ground. She also noted that US involvement would signify "arrogance," and the best option for US policy is to pursue engagement as President Obama has outlined to do.

Still, Maloney stressed the need for a "Plan B" if engagement fails, including the use of additional sanctions.  But Maloney was not entirely optimistic these would help either, unless Russia or China would join the United States in enforcing them. What Maloney was certain of, was that "a military strike on Iran would be disastrous," and should not be an option for the Obama Administration.  

Among other topics in the conference was the enormous involvement of women in the demonstrations, and how they are becoming the iconic symbol of the current unrest in Iran. Maloney and Mir confirmed that Iranian women are indeed on the forefront of the demonstrations, especially since the painful image of Neda Agha Soltan, a 26 year old woman who was killed during the demonstrations have spread world-wide. Maloney also made the point that Iranian women have been largely misrepresented in the west as being passive and oppressed, but since the demonstrations, people are beginning to realize Iranian women are involved in politics, and have been for a long time.

Overall, none of the panelists were very hopeful for a positive outcome of the current situation, either for Iran or for the prospects of US engagement. However, they all agreed that the current turmoil in Iran has significantly changed the western view of Iranians, as many have been inspired by the bravery of the Iranian people, and alarmed by the amount of government violence that has dominated the demonstrations. The panelists all agreed that the hardline leaders of the Iranian government are now faced with a severe legitimacy crisis, which they will have to address if they hope to restore their credibility at home and within the international community.

 


 
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